Editor's Note: As AI continues to reshape our world, the thinkers at Luohan Academy offer their unique perspectives on its implications. Recently, Long Chen, President of Luohan Academy, engaged in a video conversation with Brian Arthur, a member of the Luohan Academy Committee, renowned economist, founder of complexity economics and external professor at the Santa Fe Institute. Their discussion explored the historical significance of recent AI breakthroughs, the evolving relationship between AI and humans, and the interplay between AI and complexity economics. Though brief, their exchange offers profound insights and ample food for thought. Enjoy!
Founder of Complexity Economics: Brian Arthur and His Work "The Nature of Technology"
In his book "The Nature of Technology," Arthur explores the nature of technology and its evolution. He offers a unique perspective: technology is "alive," with its own evolutionary trajectory and intrinsic logic. In fact, it is becoming a "living entity" in its own right. While profoundly shaping humanity, it is also undergoing significant self-driven development.
As he understands it, new technologies are not invented out of thin air; many technological advancements are created, constructed, accumulated, and integrated from pre-existing technologies. In other words, technology is composed of other technologies——it emerges from the combinations of prior technologies.
The core of technology lies in "purposeful programming of phenomena." Every new technology stems from the recursive combination and evolution of existing ones. For example, an engine consists of sub-technologies such as ignition devices and electromagnetic induction, which can further be broken down into more fundamental technological modules. Technology exhibits biological attributes, continuously evolving through a "self-generating" mechanism, similar to how coral reefs are built through the self-construction processes of tiny organisms, with humans acting as intermediaries in this technological evolution.
At its core, technology is a process of recombining and innovating upon existing technologies, while also capturing and utilizing natural phenomena. From its origins, humanity first harnessed natural occurrences directly, such as the burning of fire or the kinetic force of stones, before gradually learning to combine these phenomena to create more complex technologies. This combination is not random but follows a certain logic and structure, requiring deep human cognition and intellectual engagement.
01 How To Define This Wave of AI Breakthroughs?
Long Chen: I believe your book "The Nature of Technology" is the best-written works on the subject of technology. Now that AI has arrived, what new insights do you have about AI? How would you rank this AI breakthrough?
I am a historian of technology, and I try to think about whether this is a small leap or a big leap. I don’t usually say that a technology is radically different, but the era we are in now is truly revolutionary and exciting. My conclusion is that artificial intelligence is driving a societal transformation and bringing about a tremendous leap forward.
I often conduct a thought experiment: Suppose I arrive in the year 2100 (although I certainly won't be around then) and look back at the major economic events of the 2020s. The obvious answer would be the emergence of various forms of artificial intelligence and how they have changed our work and way of life.
If we were to place it in historical context, every few centuries, there are major events that shape economic history, such as the discovery of the New World, the emergence of the Dutch East India company (the world’s first joint-stock company), or the development of the railway. The most recent major event is, of course, the profound transformation brought about by artificial intelligence across industries.
Specifically, 10 to 15 years ago, deep learning was applied to image recognition, and visual intelligence began to appear. In 2022, generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) was born, capable of constructing various things—such as drafting real estate contracts, designing mechanical tools, and even writing programs in various computer languages. This leap is not merely a simple advancement over a few decades. I believe this breakthrough can be compared to the transformation that occurred after the introduction of the printing press to the West. The printing press enabled the widespread dissemination of books, the exchange of ideas, and ultimately changed people's views on religion, which undoubtedly accelerated the Renaissance and gave rise to modern science. In this sense, you could say that the entire modern era was ushered in by the printing press.
Just like the printing revolution, the changes brought about by artificial intelligence to human society may take 10 to 15 years, or even 25 to 40 years, to fully materialize. The most exciting thing is that we are at the beginning of this transformation, which is quietly unfolding across various industries in the United States, China, and around the world.
I believe Gen AI will usher in a new era of professional white-collar work. Jobs for white-collar workers such as lawyers, architects, engineers, legal experts, and machine designers will be partially automated. These changes will not only be reflected in the labor market but will also reshape entire lifestyle—both the way white-collar workers live and learn, and it may even lead to a model where we work just four hours a week.
While artificial intelligence will drive economic progress, I worry that humans have derived a great sense of accomplishment from the process of creating, building, and planning things. If these tasks are taken over by machines, will human satisfaction be enhanced? I'm not sure about that. Moreover, humans have developed countless technologies over the past few thousand years, but now, "technology" itself seems to have become a "player." We must be aware of this and ensure that this trend does not get out of control. I believe that countries must be very cautious when developing and adopting artificial intelligence, leaving no room for risks.
Long Chen's Commentary
I hold Brian Arthur in high esteem as a technology historian, and his book is the best I have ever read on the nature of technology. Therefore, I am very interested in his views on the historical significance of the current AI breakthroughs. I am not referring to AI in an abstract sense but rather the AI revolution unfolding in front of us today. For instance, while AI has always been important in theory, we would not say that AI breakthroughs from five years ago held any major historical significance .
Regarding this, Arthur shared three key insights:
1. This AI breakthrough is a once-in-a-century revolution, comparable to the invention of the Printing Press.
2. To gain a deeper historical perspective, we can conduct a thought experiment: looking back from the year 2100, what would stand out as the most significant event of our time?
3. In the past, humans were the sole players, defining technology and their relationship with it. This time, technology itself may become a player, forcing humanity to rethink its own role and position.
02 The Age of AI: "What Makes Us Human" and Where Does Human Uniqueness Belong?
Long Chen: Do you believe AI can think? Or, more broadly, can technology itself think?
Brian Arthur: Many argue that AI cannot truly think, it merely "pretends" to think.
Long Chen: Then, does it have emotions?
Brian Arthur: [Laughs] That's an excellent question. As Descartes once said, "Cogito, ergo sum" (I think, therefore I am). Currently, I don't believe AI has consciousness or genuine thought. Rather, it engages in a form of reasoning. For instance, AI can compose music, create art and poetry, and even come remarkably close to passing the Turing test by mimicking human behavior with striking accuracy .
Long Chen: Where is the distinction, then? This is clearly the most fundamental question. If AI can accomplish so much, why do we still insist that it cannot think?
Brian Arthur: I believe we are at a critical juncture. When it comes to problem-solving, AI can be seen as capable of tackling challenges like humans, perhaps even better. But to say that AI can truly think? I’m not sure I’m comfortable with that idea. For example, a washing machine can wash clothes just like a human would—some can even dry and fold them—but we wouldn’t say a washing machine is like a person. We simply acknowledge that machines can perform tasks traditionally done by humans.
I'm not too concerned about whether AI will possess human-like traits. What worries me more is, as machines continue to advance, what will be left for humanity? For centuries, humans have taken pride in being able to perform complex tasks, like designing machines or working as engineers and mathematicians. But in the next 20 years, machines or AI algorithms may surpass us in these fields. This will force us to reexamine what makes us unique as humans and reflect on the question: What makes us human?
In what ways do we surpass or differ from machines? Perhaps it can be said that we have emotions, that is, we can hate, love, feel shame... these are things that machines currently cannot do. Of course, opinions on this question may vary from person to person. While these topics may differ from Luohan Academy's usual discussions, they are still worth exploring in depth.
About 80,000 years ago, humans learned to drill for fire, maintain flames, and use fire for cooking. At the time, humans may not have realized how these skills would transform the world, but they indeed brought about significant changes. Today, I believe the Western world can draw wisdom from China's Confucian, Buddhist, and Taoist cultures to reflect on questions like 'What makes us human?' 'What defines us as human?' and 'How do we survive in a world shaped by the technologies we create?'
In this transformative era, I look forward to an AI that has yet to emerge — one that can design buildings, like a 50-story skyscraper. It should be able to handle all the details, create construction plans, direct machines to pour concrete, make rebar, and reinforce the steel frame, ultimately bringing the building to life.
03 AI and Complexity Science
Long Chen: As the founder of complexity economics, what do you see as the role of AI in complexity research? In my view, the combination of AI and big data has the potential to bring about fundamental changes in information processing and collection capabilities, as evidenced by breakthroughs we have already seen in weather modeling.
Brian Arthur: I have indeed contemplated this. The intersection of AI and complexity is a promising direction that Luohan Academy could explore in depth.
Looking ahead, AI algorithms should be able to design complex large-scale systems that not only possess the ability to self-repair, correct, and optimize, but also exhibit flexibility similar to power distribution systems. Moreover, such AI-driven design will become a routine operation.
Our way of organizing society necessitates complex systems in various fields. Take a few examples. In daily life, if AI can use traffic cameras at intersections to monitor real-time vehicle numbers, speeds, and directions, and automatically adjust traffic lights across entire blocks or even the whole city, traffic flow would be greatly improved. Another example is replacing air traffic control with AI algorithms to coordinate planes coming from various directions, ensuring that all flights land safely, orderly, and efficiently
These are the areas I imagine AI will take over in the next 5 to 10 years. I believe that in my lifetime, I will be able to sit in a car without a steering wheel, where AI adjusts driving strategies based on real-time road conditions, traffic density, and weather. This will not only dramatically enhance driving safety and comfort but also redefine our perception of transportation and could even eliminate the risks of traffic accidents entirely. It is truly an exciting future!
Brian Arthur: [Laughs] I will do my best to answer your question, though I might blush a bit. My foundation lies in engineering and mathematics. Later, I developed a passion for economics, became an economist, then discovered my fascination with self-organizing systems, ultimately dedicating myself to complexity thinking. This entire intellectual journey unfolded approximately four decades ago, meaning my shift from foundational engineering/mathematics to economics and complex systems predates the last five years by a significant margin.
For example, when you ask: How does complexity integrate with AI? What can AI do in banking? How will generative AI play a role in construction? I enjoy thinking about these questions. If someone asks me a question that I cannot answer right away, I might not have the answer at the moment, but two years later, I will find it. I love pondering the answers to questions, and whenever I come across something interesting, I write it down.
There is one thing I might feel a bit embarrassed about. I believe I have done a lot of meaningful work in economics over the past 50 years, but I have not won a Nobel Prize. I think it is because I didn’t focus on just one thing. Instead, I tend to embrace various questions, provide answers, and then move on to the next challenge, rather than following a single path to do things the “right” way. Perhaps in my next life, I will be a painter, able to dedicate myself to painting for two months, and then move on to something else afterward.
Long Chen: That’s the fundamental driving force.
04 The Nature of Technology: Understanding the AI-Driven Technological Revolution
Long Chen: Does the progress of AI align with the ideas you put forward in The Nature of Technology? I recall you mentioning that new technologies are not simply 'invented' out of thin air; rather, they emerge, are constructed, accumulated, and integrated from pre-existing technologies. In other words, technology is composed of other technologies—it arises from their combinations. At its core, technology is about 'the purposeful programming of phenomena.' All new technologies stem from the recursive combination and evolution of existing ones. As the pace of technological advancement accelerates, its evolution follows its own logic, patterns, and rhythm .
Brian Arthur: Yes, absolutely. Technological evolution indeed follows its own rhythm. While humans invest significant oversight and effort, the pace and logic of technological evolution remain inherently unpredictable. Government interventions have limited efficacy here because humanity continuously uncovers new phenomena, whether in electronics, algorithms, or physics, which propel technological shifts. In turn, technological evolution reshapes the economy in ways that people from 100 or even 50 years ago could never have imagined.
Luohan Academy has been deeply engaged in studying the impact of the digital revolution on the economy and society. In the broader technological revolution, I see the digital revolution as 'the front line of battle.' It is a convergence of electronics, computing, algorithms, and telecommunications that continues to evolve dynamically.
So, what happens at the front line? How will this revolution unfold step by step? What exactly is happening? What can we anticipate? Where is it taking place? How should it develop? What are its economic implications? And how will it shape human society? These are all profoundly important questions—ones that Luohan Academy is well-positioned to explore
Recent initiatives at Luohan Academy, such as convening leading experts to discuss AI and algorithms, are both timely and critical. Equally important is fostering dialogue between China’s digital economy pioneers and Western thinkers. Collaboration across these intellectual frontiers is essential. Ultimately, we are all trying to understand the future, to make sense of how things work.
For instance, you enjoy and excel at organizing events and posing questions. Personally, I admire institutions like Luohan Academy that foster intellectual inquiry. These platforms for speculative thinking hold immense value, influencing countless stakeholders. I look forward to continuing my engagement with Luohan Academy and contributing to its mission.
